No politics, pure numbers: if the blockchain grew at its current rate and hard drive prices fell at their current rate – what storage cost in 20 years?

exponential-curve

I decided to look objectively at one of the costs of scaling on chain. This is pure numbers, no politics.

Storage is currently a very small part of the cost of running a full node. The block chain is around 100GB. With storage currently available from as little as $0.019 per GB, that’s just $1.90.

This is just a look at storage alone, it does not consider bandwidth, CPU or electricity requirements of operating a full node.

According to http://www.statisticbrain.com/average-cost-of-hard-drive-storage/ the 6 years from 2010-2016 saw the cost per GB fall from $0.09 to $0.019 – a fall of 79%.

This equates to an average fall in price of 23% each year.

From 1995 to 2000 the cost per GB fell by 99% – an average of 60% each year.

This represents a fall in the rate at which prices drop by 5% each year on average.

I will perform two calculations:

  1. Assuming the price continues to fall by 23% each year
  2. Reducing the rate at which the prices fall by 5% each year

I will also estimate blockchain growth based on actual current levels of growth.

For example the blockchain sizes: 2013: 13,490MB, 2014: 27,840MB, 2015: 53,700MB equates to an increase of 2014: 14,350MB, 2015: 25,860MB, so 2015 saw an increase of 80%. Through 2012 to 2016 the blockchain transactions grew by an average of 88.6% each year (used in calculations).

This gives the following results for the next 20 years:

Year ending Blockchain Size (MB) Annual Increase (MB) Average block size (MB) Cost per GB (USD) Storage cost Cost per GB (5% slowdown) Storage cost
2012 4270 3637 0.1 0.06 $0.25 0.06 $0.25
2013 13490 9220 0.2 0.05 $0.66 0.05 $0.66
2014 27840 14350 0.3 0.03 $0.82 0.03 $0.82
2015 53700 25860 0.5 0.022 $1.15 0.022 $1.15
2016 96345 42645 0.8 0.019 $1.79 0.019 $1.79
2017 176759 80414 1.5 0.01463 $2.53 0.0148485 $2.56
2018 328391 151633 2.9 0.0112651 $3.61 0.011766323 $3.77
2019 614318 285927 5.4 0.008674127 $5.20 0.009446048 $5.67
2020 1153477 539159 10.3 0.006679078 $7.52 0.007676459 $8.65
2021 2170144 1016667 19.3 0.00514289 $10.90 0.006310283 $13.37
2022 4087226 1917083 36.5 0.003960025 $15.81 0.005243396 $20.93
2023 7702182 3614956 68.8 0.003049219 $22.94 0.004401214 $33.10
2024 14518739 6816557 129.7 0.002347899 $33.29 0.003729648 $52.88
2025 27372412 12853672 244.6 0.001807882 $48.33 0.003189008 $85.24
2026 51609997 24237585 461.1 0.001392069 $70.16 0.002749851 $138.59
2027 97313708 45703711 869.6 0.001071893 $101.87 0.002390104 $227.14
2028 183495118 86181409 1639.7 0.000825358 $147.90 0.002093056 $375.06
2029 346003480 162508363 3091.9 0.000635526 $214.74 0.001845931 $623.73
2030 652438106 306434626 5830.2 0.000489355 $311.79 0.001638882 $1,044.21
2031 1230267939 577829833 10993.7 0.000376803 $452.70 0.001464248 $1,759.20
2032 2319855365 1089587426 20730.4 0.000290138 $657.30 0.001316023 $2,981.43
2033 4374440803 2054585438 39090.3 0.000223407 $954.37 0.001189464 $5,081.29
2034 8248679087 3874238284 73710.8 0.000172023 $1,385.71 0.001080796 $8,706.19
2035 15554153957 7305474870 138993.1 0.000132458 $2,011.98 0.000986992 $14,992.02
2036 29329755549 13775601592 262092.9 0.000101992 $2,921.30 0.000905613 $25,938.87
2037 55305780734 25976025185 494216.6 7.85342E-05 $4,241.60 0.000834677 $45,080.52

Assuming the optimistic scenarios that Bitcoin continues to achieve the levels of growth it has the last 4 years for the next 20, the cost of storage hardware alone to operate a full node would be $4,241.60 by 2037 – assuming the price of storage continues to fall rapidly.

If the rate at which storage gets cheaper continues to fall by around 5% each year, the cost for storage hardware alone would be $45,080 by 2037.

That’s just the numbers based on past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Like this research? Please consider donating to 1H2zNWjxkaVeeE3yX6uVqng5Qoi6gGvYTE and I’ll try and find the time to do more.

John Hardy
Follow me

John Hardy

Software developer living in Bristol, UK.
Bitcoin advocate since 2011.
Email [email protected]
Donations welcome: 1H2zNWjxkaVeeE3yX6uVqng5Qoi6gGvYTE
John Hardy
Follow me

Author: John Hardy

Software developer living in Bristol, UK. Bitcoin advocate since 2011. Email [email protected] Donations welcome: 1H2zNWjxkaVeeE3yX6uVqng5Qoi6gGvYTE

  • David

    The title of the article is wrong. The current rate is 1mb/10min, because the blockchain grew linearly for the last year or so. However you consider the historical growth, which doesn’t fit the current dynamics or questions the bitcoin community is faced with.

    Also projecting 20 years ahead with exponential growth you can predict all kinds of random things. But all you’re really proving is, that sometime before then, something will happen that invalidates the prediction.